is make a prediction

As a semi-detached observer of the teacher job action, I have noticed a couple of things.  Teaching and learning have not stopped.  Teachers are working just as hard as they ever did.  If they are not spending that hour or two a month in a staff meeting, they are using that time to do other things that need to get done.  (As an aside:  For the last dozen or so years before retirement, my extra-curricular time was spent four days a week with a couple of other teachers running the after school “homework club”.  The only time we ever closed the room was on staff meeting days.  That would be true for other activities.  Instead of a staff meeting, many teachers are spending that time working with students or planning lessons.

So far two sets of high school report cards have been missed and one set of elementary report cards.  But that does not mean that parents are unaware of their child’s progress.  Interim reports have gone home and parents are always able to see a teacher.

The fact that BCPSEA had the audacity to suggest that teachers should be docked 15% for work not done was an insult of the highest magnitude.  Not only are teachers continuing to teach a full workday, they have continued to do all the extra voluntary activities that make school more than just a place of learning.  (In fact, teachers would have a better case asking for extra money for the increase workload from the illegal gutting of the contract in 2002.)

OK so my prediction.  Watching - again as someone who is not completely involved – there appears to be three issues that are not being successfully negotiated.  (While you will likely be able to guess, I will leave the discussion of the blame for this lack of success to someone else.) 

 The first is a salary increase that the teachers say is deserved.  They can make a case for the increase on cost of living and comparisons to other provinces.  Whether they get what they are asking for is part of the negotiating process but when the other side says that they will give nothing then negotiating seems pointless.

The second problem is the cuts to the contract in terms of seniority rights, evaluation reports, posting and filling etc that the government negotiators are demanding.    While the BCTF has said that everything is negotiable, it seems kind of pointless if one side is saying we are giving you nothing but expecting you to give up all of these rights that you have gained in the past.

The third item involves the illegal gutting of the contract through Bill 27 and 28 in 2002.  During the 1990’s teachers took virtually no salary increase in return for contract language that guaranteed class size and treatment of special needs students.  When the language was stripped from the contract, the government saved around $300M a year.  

So what will the government do when it presents its legislation to end the teacher job action? 

Worst case:  two years of zero increase, contract language that takes away seniority rights, and very little in compensation for the loss in funding from Bill 27 and 28.  Teachers obviously escalate their job action.  The government sees this as an election issue as they show how they can take on big unions.  Bitterness lingers especially at the school and local level as teachers become less co-operative with school and board administration.

On the other hand I predict (and I will not call this a best case because it really isn’t), the legislation will be a two year rollover of the current contract.  And there will be a token amount of money given to rectify Bill 27 and 28.  The government will not try to buy off the teachers before next year’s election.  That is a no-win for them.   At the same time, I can’t see them being overly draconian as that would lose public support regardless of how teachers respond.  I believe that the Liberals know they will lose the next election so they want to make it as difficult as possible for the NDP.  Either the NDP will have to correct the problems with the current round of negotiations and be the bad guys to the public by raising taxes and paying off friendly supporters or they will have to play tough with the BCTF resulting in the loss of a powerful ally in the 2017 election.  Either way the Liberals hope that will result in a one term NDP government.

We’ll see next week.